tail. Meanwhile, also in line with McPhee’s theory, light consumers concentrate largely on the hit products.
My research also answers the question, How much enjoyment is derived from obscure versus blockbuster products?
We can all easily imagine the extreme delight that comes from
discovering a rare gem, perfectly tailored to our interests and
ours to bestow on likeminded friends. This is perhaps the
most romanticized aspect of long-tail thinking. Many of us
have experienced just such moments; they are what give Chris
Anderson’s claims such resonance. The problem is that for
every industrial designer who blissfully stumbles across the
films of Charles and Ray Eames, untold numbers of families
are subjecting themselves to the likes of Sherlock: Undercover
Dog. Ratings posted by Quickflix customers show that obscure
titles, on average, are appreciated less than popular titles.
Skeptical readers might say this is only to be expected;
heavier consumers, having seen it all, would be more crit-
The Shopping Carts of
Quickflix Video Customers
34% 35%
38% 38% 40%
42%
42%
44% 47%
61%
13% 14%
14% 14%
14%
14% 14%
15%
10% 10%
10% 11%
21%
10%
7%
10% 10%
7%
7%
7%
16%
9%
7%
13%
9%
7%
9%
13%
9%
9%
9%
5%
13% 6% 8%
5% 4% 5% 6% 8%
5% 10% 7% 5% 6% 5% 10% 4% 10% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5%
9% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
12 345 678 910
5%
5%
5%
SOURCE: QUICKFLIX
Each vertical bar represents a decile of DVD popularity;
DVDs in decile 10 are the most popular. Each bar is subdivided to show how, on average, customers who rent at least
one DVD from within that decile distribute their rentals over
all the deciles. Customers who shop in the bottom decile,
for example, choose only 8% of their rentals from among its
titles – and 34% from among top-decile titles.
ical across the board. It is true that these consumers give
disproportionately low ratings to obscure products, but they
also give disproportionately high ratings to hits; they have a
somewhat bigger range in their scores than lighter consumers
do. It could be that they are connoisseurs of a category and
are better at distinguishing superior products from middle-of-the-road content. Consumption of long-tail offerings is more
prevalent among people who tend to stick to a genre – classic
rock and roll, for example, or romantic comedies. Their
greater familiarity with alternatives may elevate ratings for
superior popular products and lower those for inferior obscure ones. Other explanations can be theorized, but the fact
remains: No matter how I slice and dice the customer base,
customers give lower ratings to obscure titles. A balanced
picture emerges of the impact of online channels on market
demand: Hit products remain dominant, even among consumers who venture deep into the tail. Hit products are also
liked better than obscure products. It is a myth that obscure
books, films, and songs are treasured. What consumers buy
in internet channels is much the same as what they have
always bought.
Implications for Strategy
Soon after The Long Tail was published, BusinessWeek declared that Chris Anderson’s theory was the biggest idea
of the year. The book was widely read, and its title entered
the management vernacular. Anderson has spoken to numerous management audiences about its implications. All this has
had an impact on practice: The long-tail theory increasingly
influences the development and appraisal of business models,
particularly in the media and entertainment sector.
It is undeniable that online commerce has significantly
broadened customers’ access to products of all varieties, including the most obscure. However, my findings suggest that
it would be imprudent for companies to upend traditional
practice and focus on the demand for obscure products. The
data show how difficult it is to profit from the tail. What, then,
are the implications of my research for practice? I have four
recommendations for producers of media and entertainment
goods, and four for online retailers or content aggregators
seeking to profit from long-tail demand. Although my research has focused on media content and information goods,
these recommendations probably apply to physical goods as
well. In fact, their payoff for manufacturers and retailers of
physical goods might be bigger, because of the higher production costs involved.
Advice to Producers
1. Don’t radically alter blockbuster resource-allocation or product-portfolio management strategies. A few winners will still go a long
way – probably even further than before.
My research suggests that the tail is long and flat, and therefore that content providers will find it hard to profit much
